# Poor Household’s Demand For Cheap Dietary Staples Essay

Predictive Analytics: Poor Family’s Demand for Low-cost Dietary Staples Ramses Y. Armendariz College of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign Final Revised FALL 2020 Predictive Analytics (Armendariz) 1 What's the Remaining Challenge? • You'll predict the impacts of modifications in costs of dietary staples. • You'll calibrate a mannequin of the demand for affordable dietary staples of the acute poor. • You'll simulate the demand to extract some predictions. • The demand mannequin is given to you: 𝑏 = 𝑖 𝛽𝛼𝑏𝑝𝑚−𝑝𝑏𝛼𝑚 +𝑝𝑚𝑝𝑏 1−𝛽 𝑐ҧ 𝑝𝑏 𝛼𝑏𝑝𝑚−𝑝𝑏𝛼𝑚 • The parameters on this mannequin are 𝑐ҧ, 𝛽, 𝛼𝑏, and 𝛼𝑚. • The financial statistics on this mannequin are 𝑖, 𝑝𝑚, and 𝑝𝑏. • You'll calibrate for the values of the parameters to suit this mannequin to the info (Jensen and Miller, 2008). • You'll use the tactic of moments to calibrate the parameters. • Upon getting calibrated for the parameters, you'll simulate some predictions: • You'll graph the calls for for affordable dietary staples of the acute poor. • You'll graph the Revenue-Consumption Curves and Engel Curves. • You'll graph the Indifference Curves of the family. • You'll estimate the Willingness To Pay for a coverage that drops the value of the staple by 1%. Final Revised FALL 2020 Predictive Analytics (Armendariz) 2 The Mannequin • This mannequin characterizes a family that faces the next financial downside: • max 𝑏,𝑚 𝛼𝑏𝑏 + 𝛼𝑚𝑚 − 𝑐ҧ 𝛽 𝛿𝑚 1−𝛽 s.t.: 𝑝𝑏𝑏 + 𝑝𝑚𝑚 ≤ 𝑖 and 𝑏, 𝑚 ≥ zero. • The next two equations characterize the answer to that financial downside • 𝑏 = 𝑖 𝛽𝛼𝑏𝑝𝑚−𝑝𝑏𝛼𝑚 +𝑝𝑚𝑝𝑏 1−𝛽 𝑐ҧ 𝑝𝑏 𝛼𝑏𝑝𝑚−𝑝𝑏𝛼𝑚 𝑚 = 𝑖−𝑝𝑏𝑏 𝑝𝑚 • Instinct of the mannequin: • Households have Cobb-Douglas preferences for starvation satiation (𝛼𝑏𝑏 + 𝛼𝑚𝑚 − 𝑐ҧ) and taste (𝛿𝑚). • Households should go to the markets to purchase an affordable dietary staple, 𝑏, and a superior composite good, 𝑚. • Households wish to keep away from consuming a amount of energy 𝑐ҧ. • This mannequin permits us to do the next: • Extrapolate the calls for for dietary staples of the acute poor. • Extrapolate the calls for for whole caloric consumption. • Extrapolate the preferences (indifference curves) for meals of households. • Estimate the Willingness To Pay for subsidies on dietary staples. Final Revised FALL 2020 Predictive Analytics (Armendariz) three The Challenge • Your mission report should be between 6 to 10 pages. • The purpose of you report is to elucidate find out how to replicate your outcomes. • Cite all of the sources you used and the folks you labored with. • I'll add some directions on find out how to calibrate the mannequin and generate some predictions in Compass. • The directions I share in Compass are to create the entire mission utilizing Excel. • Our scholar TA, Francis, has created instruction on find out how to simulate the mannequin utilizing R. • The due date for the mission is the date of the ultimate examination: December 12th, 2020 at 11:00 PM. • To know extra about this mission, you'll be able to click on on the paper situated on this hyperlink: • https://www.drarmendariz.com/analysis Final Revised FALL 2020 Predictive Analytics (Armendariz) four
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