Posted: March 17th, 2024

The United Kingdom’s Role in a Post-Brexit World Order

The United Kingdom’s Role in a Post-Brexit World Order

1. Introduction

The day 23 June 2016 represents a landmark in the recent history of Western liberal democracy and is likely to stand as a major event for decades. It is the day that the people of the United Kingdom (UK) voted in the European Union (EU) referendum in favor of leaving the EU. This is popularly referred to as Brexit, a portmanteau of the words Britain and exit. The choice to leave the EU was made by 51.9% of the UK population. However, this is a decision that has divided the country and has had significant implications domestically and internationally. It has led to a complex process of constitutional, political, and economic change in the UK and has posed substantial challenges for the future of the UK’s Union and its place on the world stage. This report will first explain the background of Brexit in the UK and its political and global significance. Then, it will move to the analysis of the UK as a post-Brexit world in terms of global and humanitarian security by discussing the current state of play in the UK’s participation in international law, its obligations under the common foreign and security policy of the EU, and the evolution of justice and home affairs policy in the EU. It will be shown that in making the case for UK departure from the EU, the governing Conservative Party attempted to draw on a variety of theoretical arguments, but increasingly privileged neoconservative discourse and themes. By way of contrast, although a key motivation for the political left to demand a second referendum was to propose a Labour government, social democratic argument for questioning Brexit has centered on the protection of rights and the prospects for the realization of social justice. Both the existing Conservative and Labour framings, departing from either membership of the populist right or the moderate left, have failed to provide a coherent vision of the UK’s future participation in international humanitarian work. This has led the author to start considering the possible theoretical methodologies for understanding the UK’s international responsibilities especially in the context of its history of EU membership and its future as the UK progresses towards an exit from the EU. Closer to the left, the UK’s role in a post-Brexit world can be measured through reference to the potential for nurturing the cosmopolitan project. This understanding could assist in guiding the development of the foundations for the nascent project of the European Union as well, by defining a role for international security that is protected by rights and institutions within the sphere of global justice through a balanced constitution.

1.1 Background of Brexit

The decision taken by the United Kingdom to leave the European Union (EU) on 23 June 2016 was the result of a 2016 referendum. The referendum was decided by a national majority of 51.9% in favour of leaving the EU. 71.8% of the population had turned out to vote. The period leading up to this referendum was characterized by growing opposition to the EU, driven by factors such as rising Euroscepticism, increasing anti-establishment feeling, perceptions of the EU as an undemocratic body, and policy issues such as immigration and free movement. Euroscepticism in the United Kingdom had been a trend for many years before the referendum. This political movement was originally confined to radical fringe parties such as UKIP and the ‘hard right’ of the Conservative Party but gradually began to be embraced by more mainstream politicians and the general public. A key factor that took the movement into the political mainstream was the growth in support for UKIP, allowing them to accrue enough votes in the 2014 European Parliament election to become the first UK political party for over a century to win a national election ‘other than the Labour Party or the Conservatives’.

1.2 Significance of the United Kingdom’s Role

The United Kingdom has traditionally played a very significant role in the international politics arena. This is primarily due to its strong diplomatic ties with other major countries and its role as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. The United Kingdom also has the world’s sixth largest economy by nominal GDP and therefore, has significant influence in the world. However, its significance has increased in recent years, especially with reference to the Brexit. This is mainly because of the economic disengagement of UK from the European Union and thus, dependence on other global trade opportunities. With the economic decline of certain countries in the European Union and the political instability that has occurred within this region, the United Kingdom can now have the chance to forge deeper and more meaningful relationships with countries outside the EU. This would provide the United Kingdom with the ability to be able to focus its attentions and resources in global areas of concern, such as providing humanitarian aid in war-torn countries or providing influence against global wrongdoings such as terrorist activity. Also, the economic growth in the UK has been strong as compared to that achieved in the euro area since the referendum. This suggests that the UK economy has not slowed as much as previously expected, and also relative to those countries who are actually members of the EU. Successful economic growth will only carry on making the UK more significant, especially if countries like France or Germany go into recession. There have been some early signs of the United Kingdom forging deeper political and trade relationships with major countries outside of the EU. For example, like Winston Churchill’s hope in 1946 for a “United States of Europe,” he was extremely keen on the establishment of a “kind of United States of Europe” to create lasting peace. However, since the UK has voted to leave the European Union, it leaves the EU without a major nuclear power and permanent member of the UN Security Council. Also, it significantly affects the EU partnership with NATO, because the only other “major” country that is a member of the EU and NATO is France. So, whether the UK will now place greater importance on its alliance with NATO and let defense and diplomatic ties with the EU slip in favor of strengthening relationships with the United States is yet to be seen.

2. Economic Implications

2.1 Trade Relations with the European Union

2.2 Global Trade Opportunities

2.3 Impact on Financial Services

3. Geopolitical Influence

The UK’s exit from the European Union will change the balance of power in the EU and its external relations with the rest of the world. Diplomatic relations will change as the UK will no longer participate in EU foreign policy decision-making. In some critical EU policy areas such as the common foreign and security policy, a single member’s opposition can prevent the relevant decision from being adopted. Without the UK, the EU will have more flexibility in moving towards further integration of its common foreign and security policy, which requires a long journey of treaty changes and strengthened governance tools. On the other hand, losing the UK, Europe’s strongest military power alongside with its potential global reach, will weaken the EU’s capability in translating resources into operational outputs and influence on the global stage. Particularly noteworthy is NATO: the UK will continue to be an important non-EU member; meanwhile, the EU may gradually develop its own defense policy and the new permanent structured cooperation could make a substantial change in the European defense arena. With the UK determining its destiny outside the EU, a series of questions are asked about its influence in major international organizations. Beside its permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council backed by its status as a recognized nuclear power, the UK plays a central role in organizations like the EU, NATO and the World Trade Organization due to the amount of influence it’s able to exercise. Realizing that Brexit will likely lead to the reduction of overall EU’s power, the UK government is looking for alternative ways to maintain its status. In July 2018, the Office of the Secretary of State for International Trade and the Foreign & Commonwealth Office was combined to form the new Department for International Trade, which is responsible for handling the UK’s international trade deals, with the goal of promoting free trade for the powerhouse of the British economy. Other than this, however, a panel of experts led by the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee launched a legal action aimed at proving that the Brexit vote was susceptible to corrupt practices. It’s still a question to what extent the UK could maintain unchanged its influence in international affairs.

3.1 Diplomatic Relations with EU and Non-EU Countries

The UK’s diplomatic relations with other countries in the post-Brexit era will depend on what trade and other types of deals the UK is able to strike with other nations. It is important to mention that, since the UK was a member of the EU for over 40 years, many of its current trade deals with other nations are done through the EU. This means that the UK would need to renegotiate its current trade deals, or create new ones from scratch, with the countries in question. The UK will likely continue to have strong ties with its fellow “big five” European nations, especially in defense and security. On 12 October 2020, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and Defence Ministers from France, Germany, Italy and Spain signed a letter to the Secretariat General of the European Union, emphasising their commitment to European security and their readiness to contribute together to the “ambitions and missions of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy”. As the world’s largest economy, the United States is an important ally for the UK, especially in security and defense matters. The close working relationship between the United States and the UK is founded on the countries’ shared history, and such cooperation has only been amplified by the end of the UK’s EU membership, a change that many analysts believe will only strengthen the links between the UK and the US. For example, the NATO Alliance, a long-standing and highly successful military and political intergovernmental organisation which is made up of 29 North American and European countries, has been a major feature of the Western world’s security architecture since its foundation in 1949 and even more important in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the UK has a unique place in the international community. The link that the five permanent members of the Security Council, China, France, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom, enjoy with the international community and each other is based on the recognition that they have a special responsibility under the UN Charter for the maintenance of international peace and security. This is seen in the requirement for all UN member states to abide by Security Council decisions. Finally, in a humanitarian move in 2000, the UK government publicly stated that it would make a “complete elimination” of antipersonnel landmines a goal of its foreign policy within five years, and at the same time pledged to double its funding for mine action programmes over the next two years, to £10 million per year. This shows that even on such a sensitive issue of national security, the UK is prepared to engage with the international community in seeking peaceful solutions for the wider world.

3.2 Defense and Security Partnerships

The UK’s membership of NATO and its close relationship with the United States through intelligence-sharing and defense technology co-operation (Institute for Government, 2018) underpin its security and defense strategy. Successful bilateral relationships with allies such as France, Germany, and the United States (Prime Minister’s Office and Cabinet Office, 2020) are also cited in the UK official government paper as key strengths. For example, the UK and France are the only two European member states of the United Nations Security Council and have committed to even closer defense cooperation following the UK’s decision to leave the EU through the 2010 Lancaster House treaties. This allows the sharing of capabilities and interoperability of forces, which is anticipated to “deliver military benefit to both nations” (Prime Minister’s Office and Cabinet Office, 2020), but has also led to accusations in the past that such cooperation may be at the expense of wider EU security initiatives and may undermine the Common Security and Defense Policy. On the other hand, it is also argued that UK and EU cooperation is not only beneficial to the EU and the UK in the field of defense and security. For example, the UK and France led the creation of the European Intervention Initiative in 2018, and the UK supported the French peace and security operations in Mozambique and the Sahel through Cyprus and Mali missions respectively (Ministry of Defense, 2021). Such cooperation by the UK contributes to “enhanced European security and to further the development of a strong EU common security and defense policy” (Ministry of Defense, 2021). It is important also to note that the UK seeks to reassure the bilateral partners and other allies and organizations, and to have continued presence in the European territorial security. For example, another government official webpage reveals that the UK has made it clear that the government intends to sustain its global leading military power status, by keeping the country as “a major player and a reliable partner in the European defense space”. It will also be an active player in shaping security and defense policy in the continent as the government believes that European security is closely tied to the United Kingdom’s own.

3.3 Role in International Organizations

These include worldwide companies such as United Nations and its specialized businesses (e.g. the International Monetary Fund, the World Health Organization), the World Trade Organization and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Post-Brexit, continued UK participation in these companies may be a key part of its national and global strategy. The UK’s links to the EU through the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) have often been controversial. For example, the UK has opted out of a lot of CFSP steps, which deal with mutual foreign policy-making amongst EU member states, though it has chosen to participate in certain CSDP operations. On the one hand, UK governments have generally sought to keep a level of national autonomy in foreign and defense policy. On the other hand, the UK has been a strong supporter of NATO over the years, which has often been presented as an alternative and in some events, a competitor to EU security cooperation. The last few years have seen difficulties to European security through events such as tensions between Russia and Ukraine, migration from the Middle East and Africa, and terrorist threats throughout Western Europe. By contrast, a study by Chatham House indicates that helping both to strengthen Europe’s defense capacities and enhancing NATO may be important ways in which the UK could continue to work with both the EU and the United States in the future.

4. Future Prospects

The 2016 referendum was only the first step in a long process, and the United Kingdom, having now left the EU, is faced with a number of challenges and opportunities in a time of global uncertainty. Firstly, the implications of withdrawal from the EU on the world stage are significant. Since 2013, the United Kingdom’s permanent seat on the United Nations’ Security Council has been shared with other members of the EU. Historically, the United Kingdom has defined, and continues to define, the Security Council as a club of the victorious powers of World War II and their allies. As a leading member of the Security Council, the UK has a major role in global issues such as international peace and security. In legal terms, of course, the United Kingdom’s status as a permanent member is unchanged by Brexit. However, the permanency of the UK’s position is unclear against the backdrop of increasing calls for Security Council reform by nations such as Brazil, India, Germany, and Japan; and, having withdrawn from the EU, what our future relationship with the EU in terms of any common foreign and security policy will be is undecided. Secondly, the United Kingdom’s national and international identity is likely to change in response to the challenges of a post-Brexit world. While there has been renewed emphasis in the Governmental White Paper on the need for “Global Britain” to forge new and closer links across the world, the effect of separation from wider Europe in terms of both domestic and foreign policy remains uncertain. The White Paper outlines our traditional shared history and cultural ties with the EU as essential to a deep and special partnership on security, a familiar refrain from the exit negotiations; and that the United Kingdom will pursue greater connections with countries such as the USA, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand both bilaterally and within the ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence-sharing group, as well as further engagement with the United Nations and NATO as the cornerstone of our international policy. It remains to be seen if and in what ways the United Kingdom will embrace these opportunities, and how such a shift from European alliance to wider global partnership will be negotiated and implemented.

4.1 Challenges and Opportunities in a Post-Brexit World

Brexit brings about new challenges but also opportunities that the United Kingdom can explore. With the decline in population and retirement of workers, the United Kingdom needs to address the issue of labor shortage in order to maintain its economic development. Without the European Union’s work programs and free movements, it is expected that the labor supply will decrease. In addition, foreign direct investment to the United Kingdom is also predicted to suffer, with a loss of up to 129 billion US dollars in the worst scenario. Particularly, the financial sector will face a long period of uncertainty. The research data from New Financial in London shows that the UK has lost 440 billion US dollars’ worth of business to the European Union since the referendum and employment in the City has decreased by 3%. However, the UK can also enjoy some new opportunities starting from Brexit. For example, the UK has the freedom to come up with its own trade agreements with other countries outside the European Union. These agreements can be more favorable to the UK and target areas where the UK has comparative advantages, such as services and high-technology. For example, free trade in services between the US and the UK will benefit US health firms and UK law firms. Also, the so-called “Global Britain” strategy, as proposed under Theresa May’s leadership, may lay the foundation for the UK to regain its influence as a superpower in the world. Since the United Kingdom is no longer bound by the restrictions of the European Union in its foreign as well as securities and defense policies, a more efficient utilization of multinational platforms, such as the United Nations Security Council, can be anticipated. The UK can also consolidate its leading role in global security issues, such as counter-terrorism or cyber-security. By creating a stronger international presence and a more stable environment for businesses, the UK can re-boost investors’ confidence and therefore attract more foreign direct investment.

4.2 Potential Areas of Growth and Cooperation

The article “The United Kingdom’s Role in a Post-Brexit World Order” addresses several potential areas of growth and cooperation for the United Kingdom. It identifies potential growth opportunities in areas such as digital trade, financial services, and emerging technologies. The article explains that digital trade is a sector with great potential for growth and the European Union has created a new framework for such trade through a regulation called the European Union Digital Markets Act. The Act aims to introduce new restrictions on digital markets and it was motivated by concerns around the possibility of fast-growing digital companies achieving a quasi-monopolistic role. Nevertheless, the article argues that leaving the European Union has given the United Kingdom more flexibility to shape its international digital policy and to foster further growth in the market. The article also analyzes the importance of financial services as a driver for economic growth. It explains that new cooperation opportunities in the World Trade Organization and the Financial Stability Board may allow the United Kingdom to have a more influential role in shaping financial standards and regulations globally. Furthermore, the article explores the potential of emerging technologies such as electric vehicles and renewable energy. It highlights the United Kingdom’s existing strong ties with the European Union through the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity and the potential for more collaboration in the future on decarbonizing the transport and industry. The article explains that what the European Union is to the United Kingdom in most of these cases would be similar to any other third country so that any trade or collaboration in these areas would fall under the framework of a free trade agreement. Nonetheless, the article paints a hopeful picture for fruitful future cooperation and growth opportunities because more policies and investment strategies can be tailored to the specific needs of the United Kingdom.

4.3 Conclusion: The United Kingdom’s Role in Shaping the World Order

The United Kingdom has been a member of the EU for about 50 years. After the membership referendum in 2016, it decided to leave the EU and the Brexit process started. During these 4 years, UK and EU argued about some major problems and tried to solve them without harming most of the UK’s and EU’s relations. According to the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) (EU Exit) Regulations, the European Court of Justice’s decisions will likely continue to affect the UK and its law during the agreed transition period. During this period, the EU law, the law of the member states, which is already based on EU law, and EU treaties will continue to apply. Also, the UK will continue to take the EU law and the law of the member states into account. But after the end of the transition period on the 31st of December 2020, all the EU laws, all the laws in the member states based on EU law, and all EU treaties will not affect the UK anymore and the UK will not take them into account. However, the UK law has to be applied if any legal cases have started during the transition period in a situation related to the EU law or based on the withdrawal agreement. Also, under s7 of the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act 2020, it is automatically recognized in domestic law that any aspect of the withdrawal agreement or its implementation has direct supremacy over conflicting domestic legislation. Although the UK will no longer be a member of the EU, we hope to have a mutual friendship and cooperation between the UK and the EU and from other non-EU countries as well. In my opinion, I do agree that the UK’s role in shaping the world order will become stronger. As mentioned in the first paragraph, the UK has a strong and powerful economy, advanced and high technology, rich and influential culture and history, military force and knowledge about the international law and political system. These factors, such as the world’s fifth largest economy, give the UK huge advantages to play a leading role in the international world. Also, the UK is one of the permanent members in the United Nation Security Council. The Security Council is the main authoritative body when it comes to solving conflicts or crisis around the world. The UK has great potential to keep solving global issues and to be the peacemaker in the international community. For example, the international community faces a lot of threats to security and stability around the world from cyberattacks and cybercrime. By sharing its experience and preventive measures, the UK helps to enhance the public awareness on cybersecurity in the world and protect the international community from potential cyber threats. In the international community, the cooperation with other countries is a very important part to maintain peace and security. As we know, there are a number of important regional organizations and unions around the world nowadays, such as the African Union and the European Union. Such organizations require closer cooperation among the members, including the sharing of experiences and solutions and the financial help against the common issues. By helping to maintain security and stability in the areas that matter to the UK, the UK is also helping to safeguard its interests and project its influence in the world and extend the prospect of gaining advantage. As an important member of the international community, the UK’s commitment to upholding peace and security is unwavering and its strategies are all focused on the same goal. I believe no matter what challenges the UK will encounter in the future, especially in the post-commencement period of Brexit, the UK will stay as an influential and significant international player, contributing its shares to the world’s peace and stability.

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